Some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets

Ken Kruly

February 19

The political parties are gearing up for candidate petitioning, which starts on February 27th. Spring thankfully seems like it wants to start early. Here are some facts, observations, and heard-on-the-streets:

The old guard of the Republican Party has basically said nothing about Donald Trump's comments that suggested Russia could feel free to expand its war against Ukraine into other parts of Europe. Condoleezza Rice, Dick Cheney, George Bush and many more – all silent. As Simon & Garfunkel wrote, "'Fools, said I, 'You do not know, silence like a cancer grows.'"
There are millions of Americans of Polish and eastern European descent in this country. Is Trump's vision what they want?
Tom Suozzi's win in NY3 helps shrink the House Republican majority, which continues to act like the gang who couldn't shoot straight. Going on the offensive with Republicans in Congress who killed conservative immigration reform legislation at the behest of Trump worked well as a campaign strategy.
One interesting tidbit from the campaign in NY3 concerns the SuperPAC that was assisting the Republican candidate. They hired snowplowing contractors to plow streets to provide easier access to the polls after a snowstorm. They evidently concentrated in areas where larger numbers of Republican registrants lived. Hmm, maybe they are on to something there.
The Independent Redistricting Commission's proposed congressional redistricting was sent to the state Legislature late last week, leaving not much time for legislators to consider action before petitioning begins. Reactions from party leaders were predictable, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and some other Democrats wanting additional changes while Republicans seem mostly content with the lines.
In Western New York the IRC's plan would make Nick Langworthy's NY23 district one percent more Republican and Brian Higgins' former NY26 district two percent more Democratic. NY24, represented by Claudia Tenney, includes the eastern part of Niagara County and then meanders up to Watertown. Under the IRC's proposal that district would be the most Republican district in the state.
There is great interest in the New York district lines because of the Democratic loss of four winnable seats in 2022; there are, however, similar pick-up opportunities in California and elsewhere. The 2022 Democratic losses in New York were largely related to the handling of crime issues in that year's campaign. That in turn led to much greater turnout by Republicans in the state (63 percent) than Democrats (47 percent). In the four key Republican congressional wins in New York a combined total of 1,130,153 votes were cast. The collective winning margin was 39,291 votes. More than half of that number belonged to George Santos, meaning that the winning margins were very small in the other districts. Poor Democratic turnout flipped those seats.
The Republicans still have not identified a candidate in NY26. Talk on the street is that they considered Carlton Cain, who ran a close race for mayor of Niagara Falls last year. Cain spent much time on that campaign explaining reported problems with his record as a member of the Niagara Falls Police Department.
It appears that there will be no Republican primary this year in NY23, the district represented by Nick Langworthy. A Democratic candidate, Thomas Carle, has a campaign committee on file with the Federal Election Commission but it shows no fundraising activity thus far.
As noted in previous posts, to date only Republican candidates for the state Legislature in Western New York have filed for participation in the Public Campaign Financing program. Wondering if that might be because the Republican state legislative campaign committees are lagging in their ability to financially assist their candidates.
The political dynamics concerning the planned Kensington Expressway project are interesting. There is some opposition to the plans. For large public works projects opposition can lead to delays. Delays are very tough on such projects in terms of costs and outcome.
Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown is talking about snowplowing costs and the need for more state aid. Federal pandemic funds are running out. That all looks like warming signs for the next city budget.
WROTB management has demonstrated their incredible ability to once again parlay grifting by the management team with continued mismanagement as reported by Investigative Post. Even with the new Board set-up it appears that it is going to take some time to unravel the mess.
Redistricting the Buffalo school board districts appears to be moving along with the city School Board, a subject I wrote about last summer. It's late but better late than never. The districts should conform to the 2020 federal census, which showed an increase of 6.5 percent in the city's population since 2010. The current districts reflect 2010 census numbers.
Former Erie County Comptroller Stefan Mychiliw, recently employed by Vivek Ramaswamy, has joined the staff of State Senator Pat Gallivan.
A year ago the Buffalo Sabres finished strong and just missed the playoffs by one point. Optimism for the current season has turned into pessimism. The football draft is just weeks away.