Israeli Prime Minister is clearly provoking Hezbollah into a broader regional war. Since the 7 October attacks by Hamas on Israel, there has been a persistent low-level conflict at the Israeli-Lebanese border. But the Israelis have escalated the conflict throught the introduction of the booby-trapped pagers and walkie-talkies and the direct aerial attack on Beirut. These actions comes on top of the Israeli attacks against Hezbollah and Hamas leaders in Syria and Iran. In short, Israel has already committed acts of war against three soveriegn states: Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
These attacks have been quite successful in diminishing the command structure of both Hamas and Hezbollah. But the apparent Israeli assumption that by eradicating the leadership of these organizations, it is reducing the tactical threats of these organizations to Israeli security is profoundly mistaken. Unquestionably, these organizations have been set back and will need to establish new leadership and new communication strategies. But the attacks serve only to amplify the sense of grievance that underlies the conflict. In particular, Hezbollah will have to respond in some effective way or it runs the risk of becoming totally irrelevant. Writing for the Long War Journal, Joe Truzman outlines the dynamic:
"How and when will Hezbollah respond against Israel is the question on the minds of Israeli military leaders, analysts, and many people living in the region. Retaliation will surely come, but it won't be a knee-jerk reaction. Hezbollah has demonstrated over the past 11 months that despite initiating a conflict with Israel under the guise of assisting Palestinian civilians in Gaza, it prefers to keep the fighting limited to southern Lebanon. However, after months of rocket fire against Israel and the resounding response by the IDF in the last days, the era of limited conflict may be reaching its conclusion in the days ahead."
Hezbollah and Iran have been remarkably restrained thus far in their responses to the Israeli attacks, most likely because they have yet to figure out an effective response. The both know that the US and its allies in the region have the capability to shoot down many missiles before they hit their targets. The only possible way for Hezbollah and Iran to actually damage the Israeli homeland is through a massive attack that would deplete their arsenals and would only be effective against population centers in Israel. Such an attack, however, would clearly trigger off a massive response by Israel and the US. That outcome would be disastrous, but it might be a better outcome than humiliation and irrelevance.
The real question is why Israel is pushing its adversaries into such a catastrophic position. The question takes on special urgency since we have no idea what the Netanyahu government intends to do with the Gaza Strip. The war there is essentially over: Hamas is probably incapable of launching any attacks on the Israeli homeland any time soon: "As military operations continue in Gaza and the West Bank, the overall posture of the Israeli military appears to have shifted north. Israel has shifted its 98th Division, which contains the Commando and Paratroop Brigade, to the north. This is a key division that played a major role in Gaza fighting between November 2023 and July 2024. It is joining a number of IDF divisions already deployed there."
But a larger war would take the eyes of the world off of Gaza and that objective may be the purpose of the escalation--to provide cover for the eventual takeover of the Gaza Strip by Israel. The Middle East Eye suggests that this objective is indeed real: "The threat of war, however, will have implications far beyond Lebanon, as it will turn the world's attention away from Gaza and allow Israel to complete its mass killing and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians." NBC News reports:
"Warnings from the White House — and the United Nations' top court — appear to have done little to stop some of Israel's right-wing ministers from touting a vision that the country's own prime minister has dismissed: rebuilding Israeli settlements in Gaza after the war.
"Several ministers within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing government were among thousands of people who flocked to a conference in Jerusalem on Sunday night calling for Israelis' 'resettlement' of Gaza, with far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich delivering keynote speeches.
"The conference, dubbed 'Settlement Brings Security,' was led in part by the right-wing Nachala organization, a group advocating for the expansion of Jewish settlements, which are considered illegal by international and humanitarian bodies. The event called for Israel to rebuild settlements in both Gaza and northern parts of the occupied West Bank."
That objective seems fanciful, given the massive destruction in Gaza. But it is precisely because the Israelis have destroyed the infrastructure of the Gaza that resettlement becomes possible. No states, including Israeli allies, will contribute to the reconstruction of the Gaza as long as it remains under Israeli control And the Israelis will not contribute to the reconstruction of Gaza unless it is accompanied by resettlement. The end result is that the default option for the battered Gaza Strip is Israeli control.
The Israelis have decided to start a fire in order to put out another fire. They would be well-advised to read The Possessed by Dostoyevky. In that novel, a revolutionary group starts a fire in a town and the immediate response of the townspeople is to put out the fire. But as a governmental official watches those efforts, he reveals the underlying truth to resistance movements:
'What is he doing there?'
'He is putting out the fire, your Excellency.'
'Not likely. The fire is in the minds of men and not on the roofs of houses.'
—Fyodor Dostoyevski, The Possessed
No comments:
Post a Comment