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Sunday, August 25, 2024

‘India Is Not Neutral’

Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy on August 23, 2024 upon his arrival in Kiev from Poland. During their meeting, the visiting Prime Minister offered his role "as a friend" to ensur…
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'India Is Not Neutral'

By Koushik Das on August 25, 2024

Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India, met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy on August 23, 2024 upon his arrival in Kiev from Poland. During their meeting, the visiting Prime Minister offered his role "as a friend" to ensure peace in the former Soviet Republic. President Zelenskyy expressed hope that Prime Minister Modi's brief visit to his country would pave the way for an Indian role in peace mediation.

The Associated Press (AP) reported that Prime Minister Modi and President Zelenskyy mainly discussed Kiev's peace formula that prioritises territorial integrity and also the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian soil. PM Modi told the Ukrainian President: "India was never neutral, but always on the side of peace. We say it very loudly and clearly that we respect sovereignty and support territorial integrity. It is our highest priority." He said: "The only way of resolving problems is through dialogue and diplomacy. It must be done without losing any time." Prime Minister Modi also mentioned that he had told Russian President Vladimir Putin that "problems cannot be resolved on the battlefield" during his visit to Moscow in July 2024.

It may be noted that the Indian Prime Minister is popularly known as a close friend of President Putin. Hence, both Russia and the US (as well as the Western allies of the US) were closely monitoring Modi's visit to Ukraine, the first by an Indian Head of Government since New Delhi established diplomatic relations with Kiev more than three decades ago. This visit was indeed a historic one as Prime Minister Modi arrived in Kiev the day before Ukraine's Independence Day!

According to political analysts, Prime Minister Modi's visit to Ukraine can be considered as a damage control exercise, although the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has called it a reflection of the independent foreign policy of the South Asian nation. Analysts believe that Prime Minister Modi has made a serious attempt to offset some of the criticism he faced during his visit to Russia in July 2024. The US and its Western allies have never been happy with India's close ties with Russia and its neutral position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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The Indian PM's July visit to Moscow had coincided with a lethal strike on a children's hospital in Kiev. Soon after PM Modi's meeting with President Putin, President Zelenskyy said on X: "It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world's largest democracy hug the world's most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day." In July, US Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti, too, stated that New Delhi's ties with Washington DC could not be taken for granted, adding: "No war remains distant anymore."

It may be noted that both President Putin and President Zelenskyy had invited Prime Minister Modi after he won the Parliamentary Elections for a third consecutive time. Hence, many believe that the Indian Prime Minister landed in Ukraine to play the balancing act especially after his visit to Russia in July (2024).

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Watch: Modi, Zelenskyy honour the memory of children at Martyrologist Exposition

Meanwhile, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has claimed that New Delhi would maintain substantive and independent ties with both Moscow and Kiev. Senior ministry official Tanmaya Lal stressed: "This is not a zero-sum game… these are independent, broad ties. This is an important visit that is expected to catalyse our ties in a whole range of sectors." According to Lal, India wants to strengthen ties with both Russia and Ukraine in various sectors, like economic, trade, agriculture, infrastructure, health and education, pharmaceuticals, defence and culture.

Commenting on Prime Minister Modi's visit to Ukraine, Rick Rossow, the Chair of US-India Policy Studies at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said that although "India clearly has a far deeper relationship with Russia", it wanted to build on fledgling bilateral relations with Ukraine. He told CNBC that India-Ukraine ties are "not insignificant", keeping in mind that there were many Indian students in Ukraine and the Eastern European country was among India's 50 largest trade partners. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs confirmed that trade between New Delhi and Kiev reached USD 3.3 billion in 2021-22 financial year.

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As per an article published recently in the Foreign Policy magazine, India has decided to maintain cordial ties with both Russia and Ukraine, as Russia has failed to supply weapons to India in a timely manner in recent times (despite being the largest weapon supplier to India). It mentioned: "Even if Modi's visit to Kiev upsets Moscow, New Delhi can deal with any adverse political fallout, largely because under the current circumstances Russia has shown itself to be a wobbly partner."

However, a section of political analysts is of the opinion that Prime Minister Modi's visit to Kiev would have no negative impact on Indo-Russia ties. They have argued that the Kremlin is well aware of India's neutral position on the Ukraine War. Derek Grossman, an Indo-Pacific analyst at the RAND Corporation, told Reuters: "Modi's visit is designed to some extent to show that New Delhi's strategic orientation remains non-alignment, and as such, to keep balance in its foreign policy." Grossman said that the visit might help Prime Minister Modi to emerge as the "mediator-in-chief" only. Ahead of his arrival in Ukraine, Modi told the Indian community in Poland that "today's era is not of war". With this remark, he hinted that India was ready to play the role of a mediator.

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Interestingly, Harsh Pant, the Vice President of Observer Research Foundation, told CNBC that Prime Minister Modi's visit to Ukraine underscored India's desire to see an end to the ongoing conflict by bringing both sides to the negotiating table. He stated: "India does not view the possibility that, without having Russia at the table, you can have a solution. I think Modi has always been interested in Ukraine because, fundamentally, there is a strong Indian interest in ensuring that a stable European security architecture emerges that can meet the aspirations of both sides."

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