Iran Selects Reformist Pezeshkian As Raisi’s Successor
Iran has elected reformist Dr Masoud Pezeshkian (69) as the successor of late President Ebrahim Raisolsadati (better known as Ebrahim Raisi; December 14, 1960 - May 19, 2024). Dr Pezeshkian won the Presidential Election on July 5 (2024), defeating hard-…
Iran has elected reformist Dr Masoud Pezeshkian (69) as the successor of late President Ebrahim Raisolsadati (better known as Ebrahim Raisi; December 14, 1960 - May 19, 2024). Dr Pezeshkian won the Presidential Election on July 5 (2024), defeating hard-liner Saeed Jalili by over 53.3% of the vote from more than 30 million ballots counted. Iran's official news agency reported that Dr Pezheshkian received 10.7 million votes, while Jalili managed to get 10.3 million votes.
As per the Iranian Constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber assumed the role of Interim President following the demise of President Raisi in a helicopter accident on May 19, 2024. However, he did not put forth his candidature in the Presidential Election! A total of four candidates contested the Election, this time. Apart from Dr Pezeshkian and Jalili, Speaker of Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and senior member of the National Security Council (and hardline leader) Mostafa Pourmohammadi took part in the First Round of Presidential Polls.
As no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the First Round of elections on June 28 (2024), the Second Round of voting took place on July 5. Dr Pezeshkian and Jalili, who finished first and second, respectively, in the First Round, contested the Second Round. In the First Round, Dr Pezeshkian, a Cardiac Surgeon by profession, got 42% of votes, while Jalili bagged 39%.
Interestingly, only 40% of Iran's 61 million voters cast their votes in the First Round of Presidential Elections. It is the lowest voter turnout in any Presidential Election in Iran since 1979! However, 49.8% of voters exercised their Democratic Rights in the Second Round on July 5.
On May 19 (2024), President Raisi, his Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and several other top Iranian officials were killed when their helicopter crashed near the village of Uzi in East Azerbaijan Province.
According to the Iranian Constitution, a Council, consisting of the Vice President (Interim President), the Speaker of the Parliament and the Head of the Judiciary, shall have to organise fresh Presidential Elections within 50 days of the death of a President. Initially, there were six candidates this year. However, two candidates withdrew their names later. Finally, Dr Pezheshkian has won the Presidential Elections.
Pezeshkian May Advocate A Milder Foreign Policy (The Wire) While neither Dr Pezeshkian nor Jalili was expected to bring big changes to Iran's domestic or foreign policies (if he won), with the main power resting in the hands of the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; the Iranian President would play a role in selecting the latter's successor.
However, a win by Jalili, who has often voiced his hostility toward the West, would have brought an even more antagonistic domestic and foreign policy on the part of Tehran. According to analysts, Dr Pezeshkian, who won some 10% more votes than Jalili in the First Round, might advocate a milder foreign policy, be more open to reviving negotiations with major powers to restore the nuclear pact and be more liberal in his approach to social issues, such as the mandatory wearing of headscarves by women.
Dr Pezeshkian has always regarded Khamenei as the ultimate authority on all state matters in the country. During his campaign, Dr Pezeshkian promised not to implement any radical changes to Iran's Shiite theocracy.
Formidable Challenges Ahead (Talk Diplomacy) Dr Pezeshkian, Iran's President-elect, addressed the Iranian public on X, pledging solidarity amid upcoming challenges. Dr Pezeshkian's campaign highlighted issues within Iran's political system and economy, but his solutions were often abstract. However, his foreign policy stance was clear: he supports reviving the 2015 Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) and criticised rivals for undermining past negotiations.
Dr Pezeshkian's foreign policy approach reflects a willingness to negotiate with the US, echoing former President Hassan Rouhani's nuclear diplomacy. He accused opponents Saeed Jalili and Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf of sabotaging Rouhani's 2021 efforts to renegotiate the JCPOA. Despite his popular mandate, Dr Pezeshkian's influence is limited by the Supreme National Security Council and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who holds the final say in strategic decisions.
Khamenei, angered by former US President Donald Trump's 2018 JCPOA withdrawal, is unlikely to endorse new negotiations before the US Presidential Election outcome. Dr Pezeshkian, however, sees potential for a deal with Trump, emphasising Trump's business mindset. Any agreement must also satisfy the economic interests of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which exerts significant influence.
Dr Pezeshkian supports improved relations with Arab neighbours, continuing the late President Ebrahim Raisi's detente. He condemned the 2016 attacks on Saudi diplomatic missions, blaming them for Iran's diplomatic isolation. Yet, he cannot act independently because of the IRGC and Khamenei.
Iran's relations with Israel and the US remain critical. A potential Iran-US military confrontation could see the IRGC target international shipping and oil installations, as during Trump's administration. Despite Dr Pezeshkian's intentions, he may face the same foreign policy crises as his predecessors.
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