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Netanyahu and Putin are both waiting for Trump

WorldView By Ishaan Tharoor with Sammy Westfall Email Netanyahu and Putin are both waiting for Trump President Donald Trump talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White Hou…
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Netanyahu and Putin are both waiting for Trump

limitlesslife

May 31

WorldView

Ishaan Tharoor
By Ishaan Tharoor

with Sammy Westfall

Email Ishaan TharoorEmail

Netanyahu and Putin are both waiting for Trump

President Donald Trump talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Jan. 27, 2020. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

President Donald Trump talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Jan. 27, 2020. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Global anger deepened all the more this week in the wake of yet another deadly Israeli strike on Gaza. The bombardment triggered a blaze that swept through parts of a makeshift tent camp in the environs of Rafah, the territory's southernmost city, killing at least 45 Palestinians and injuring hundreds more. Images of charred bodies and screaming children proliferated in the aftermath, adding to the already considerable pressure on President Biden to change course in its staunch support for Israel's campaign.

After the strike, White House officials struggled to explain how the ongoing Israeli offensive in Rafah did not cross Biden's blurry red line. "We still don't believe that a major ground operation in Rafah is warranted," White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters. "We still don't want to see the Israelis, as we say, smash into Rafah with large units over large pieces of territory."

Whatever the criteria surrounding "large units" and "large pieces of territory," the stark reality is that Israel has already driven out hundreds of thousands of people who had been sheltering in Rafah after fleeing other parts of the Gaza Strip. Its capture and closure of the main border crossing into Egypt cratered a struggling humanitarian operation. Aid agencies describe the war-ravaged Gaza Strip as a place where Palestinians have nowhere safe to go. And Israeli officials are adamant that they won't let up anytime soon in their quest to vanquish militant group Hamas.

Tzachi Hanegbi, national security adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told local radio this week that his government expected to wage its operations in Gaza for "at least another seven months." He said the extended mission would be "to fortify our achievement and what we define as the destruction of the governmental and military capabilities" of Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in the territory.

In seven months time, a rather different political dispensation may exist in Washington. Netanyahu reportedly met this month with three foreign policy envoys working with former president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump — who could yet win the election despite being convicted Thursday on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in his New York state hush money case. Though it's unclear how he would have handled the crisis differently from Biden, the former president has invoked Biden's friction with Netanyahu as evidence of U.S. failure and expressed little public sympathy for Palestinian suffering. Trump has told donors that if he returns to the White House, he would severely crackdown on pro-Palestinian groups in U.S. universities and even deport foreign students participating in these protests.

Netanyahu, who benefited immensely from Trump's first term, is arguably hoping for a similar dividend in the event of a second. In the interim, he has openly rejected the Biden administration's hopes for the Palestinian Authority to take the lead in the postwar administration of Gaza, and he and his allies have shown no interest in even engaging in the White House on reviving pathways for a Palestinian state. And contrary to the Biden administration's wishes, Netanyahu may soon act on a Republican invitation to address a joint session of Congress.

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Standing up to Biden — whose favorability among Israelis has dropped in recent months — may help shore up the support Netanyahu needs from the Israeli right and curry favor among their counterparts in the United States. It also accelerates a deeper shift in the U.S.-Israeli relationship.

"Over the past 16 years, Netanyahu has departed sharply from his predecessors' studious bipartisanship to embrace Republicans and disdain Democrats, an attitude increasingly mirrored in each party's approach to Israel," my colleagues wrote this week in a piece examining the prime minister's role in widening a growing divide — even as Biden remains a staunch supporter of Israel and is reviled by many on the U.S. left for being complicit in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians in Gaza.

It's not just Netanyahu who is waiting for Trump. The evidence is more clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin is holding out for a Trump victory, which would probably help the Kremlin consolidate its illegal conquests of Ukrainian territory. My colleagues reported last month that Trump and his inner circle have outlined the terms of a potential settlement between Moscow and Kyiv that they would attempt to usher in if in power. "Trump's proposal consists of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia, according to people who discussed it with Trump or his advisers and spoke on the condition of anonymity because those conversations were confidential," they reported.

Such a move would fracture the transatlantic coalition built up in support of Ukraine's resistance to Russian invasion. It would cement the Republican turn away from Europe's security at a time when Western resolve around Ukraine is flagging. And it would be yet another sign of Trump's conspicuous affection the strongman in the Kremlin.

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