It would not be an easy task for India to engage in diplomatic bargaining with major global powers in 2024. In 2022, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reportedly told Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin: "This is not an era of war, let's talk peace." Soon after the beginning of the Ukraine War, he underlined the significance of Democracy, Dialogue and Diplomacy, stressing that the biggest problem Developing Countries were facing was the scarcity of food, fuel and fertilisers. It would be prudent to assume that PM Modi has been correct in more than one way. No one should justify war in the modern world.
However, Russia has ignored the Indian PM's suggestions, and the Ukraine War is still going on. The US and its Western partners, too, have long been provoking the Kremlin over the Ukraine issue. In such a situation, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs has realised that the war has become a harsh reality in the third decade of 21st Century, making it difficult to maintain the diplomatic balance.
The task became even more difficult in the latter half of 2023 after allegations of twin conspiracies surfaced against India. Hence, India's friendship with Canada and the US, the two big pillars of global trade, is gradually fading. Canada has claimed that India plotted the murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian Sikh separatist leader involved with the Khalistan Movement, which calls for an Independent Sikh State in the Punjab region (of India and Pakistan). Meanwhile, the US has claimed that India made an attempt to assassinate US citizen Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, one of the main leaders of the Khalistan Movement. Pakistan often accuses the Indian intelligence agencies of running such covert missions in Balochistan. However, Pakistan's allegation does not reach the famous table of the United Nations. The Indian diplomats are well aware of the fact that Canada and the US are not Pakistan.
India continued to import crude oil from Russia even after the beginning of the Ukraine War, ignoring economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its Western allies. Indian Minister of External Affairs Dr Subrahmanyam Jaishankar defended New Delhi's decision, stating that the South Asian nation would never compromise with its National Security. He also said: "India buys less oil from Russia in a month than what Europe does in an afternoon." Prime Minister Modi and his External Affairs Minister defended India's stand on Russia with this argument in 2023. However, the scenario changed abruptly after India hosted the 18th G20 Summit on September 9-10, 2023.
The Joe Biden Administration in Washington DC was considering India as a close ally even after New Delhi abstained from anti-Moscow voting at the UN Security Council. During his visit to the US in June 2023, Prime Minister Modi received a warm welcome from President Biden. At that time, the Indian diplomats claimed that Prime Minister Modi's global image would help India manage its foreign policy on its own terms.
The Biden Administration recently held a closed-door meeting with five Indian-origin members of the US Congress to discuss the Pannun murder conspiracy. Later, those five members issued a strongly worded joint statement, saying that the allegations against New Delhi were very disturbing and could cause significant damage to Indo-US relations, if not resolved. Furthermore, the US Attorney General's Office has filed an indictment in a New York court and has got an Indian national, named Nikhil Gupta (and also an unnamed Indian officer) arrested in the Czech Republic for allegedly conspiring to assassinate Pannun. While Gupta's family has moved the US Supreme Court, the Indian External Affairs Ministry is trying hard to bring him back.
Earlier in September 2023, Eric Michael Garcetti, the US Ambassador to India, revealed that New Delhi invited President Biden as the Chief Guest on Republic Day (held on January 26). The ambassador informed the press that the US President had accepted the invitation. However, Washington DC announced in the first week of January 2024 that President Biden would not attend India's Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi. Later, French President Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron accepted New Delhi's invitation to attend the Republic Day ceremony as the Chief Guest. However, the damage has already been done.
At a time when India's ties with Canada and the US have touched a new low, the Global Times (a daily tabloid under the auspices of the Chinese Communist Party's flagship daily, the People's Daily) has published an article, praising Prime Minister Modi and the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. This is not a mere coincidence. Foreign policy experts are of the opinion that Beijing has made the move after considering the current diplomatic turmoil between India and the US. The article shall certainly irk both Canada and the US.
India has a long way to go in 2024 to restore ties with the US, regain the lost trust, and reach the goal of a bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Given the current complex global geopolitical landscape, the job seems to be quite difficult.
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