Triumphs, Vulnerabilities & Nuclear Risks
The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has presented Iran with both strategic advantages and vulnerabilities. While Iran has portrayed the conflict as a triumph against its chief regional foe, Israel, and the US, the reluctance to capitalise on the situation reveals strategic weaknesses.
Despite boasting about the strength of the Axis of Resistance, Iran has refrained from opening major new fronts against Israel or the US, indicating a limited offensive capability. The war has, however, hindered Israel and delayed the normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Iran's cautious response to the conflict, described as Strategic Patience, signals vulnerability rather than strength. The reluctance to fully engage may stem from a primary focus on deterring attacks on Iran itself. The conflict has exposed the limits of Iran's regional deterrence and could prompt Tehran to reconsider its strategic approach.
As the conflict continues, the risk of Iran pursuing nuclear weapons as the ultimate deterrent increases. While risks are associated with nuclearization, including the potential for preventive strikes or triggering a regional arms race, the Islamic Republic may see the benefits outweighing the costs. The war's aftermath has made nuclearization more likely, as Iran's restrained response hints at vulnerability.
The breakdown of diplomatic efforts between Iran and the US, coupled with Iran's progress in its nuclear programme, raises concerns. A nuclear-armed Iran, although risky, might provide Tehran with newfound assurance and leverage in regional dynamics. Diplomacy remains the only viable option to address Iran's nuclear ambitions, emphasising the need for resumed talks to prevent further deterioration and potential nuclearization.
This article was first published by Talk Diplomacy on January 29, 2024.
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