The Russia-Ukraine War has been going on for nearly 700 days. Defence experts are of the opinion that the year 2024 will not be very promising for Ukraine especially after Kiev's strategy to counter-attack failed in June 2022. The shock of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, initial setbacks and subsequent strategic military victories in some regions gave Ukrainians some hope about a positive outcome of the war. Also, there was speculation that Western aid might help Ukraine force Russia to make a compromise. However, the hope has remained unfulfilled. Instead, Ukraine had to pay a heavy price, both militarily and financially, for the counter-attack. Due to this, an atmosphere of uncertainty has been created in the internal politics of Ukraine, and in its relationship with Western Allies.
For a long period of time, the US and the European Union (EU) have stood by Ukraine. Unfortunately, their late decision on financial, as well as defence, aid to Kiev (because of the Israel-Hamas War in West Asia) may have hampered Ukraine's efforts to continue the war against Russia. Republicans in the US Congress have blocked President Joe Biden's plan to send more aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, saying that they would not back the plan unless the immigration and border security policies of their country are changed. President Biden is in a tricky situation ahead of the 2024 US Presidential Elections.
The EU, too, has delayed its multi-year bailout decision until January (2024) because of opposition from Hungary. Hence, it has become increasingly difficult for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy to continue the war against Russia without receiving support from the US and its Western partners.
Meanwhile, the Israel-Hamas War has helped Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in a way by turning the global attention to West Asia. The Russian strongman is well aware of the fact that the current humanitarian crisis in Palestine would have a negative impact on Ukraine, as far as Western aid is concerned. In such a situation, Kiev will be under tremendous pressure.
Both Moscow and Kiev have so far agreed to a ceasefire, but on their own terms, which are not acceptable to either one. Ukraine knows that a declaration of ceasefire in this situation will ultimately help Russia, as the Kremlin will use it as an opportunity to gain strength. Hence, President Zelenskyy has no other option, but to continue the war. As things stand, the war between Russia and Ukraine has now reached a stalemate.
If neither side can make any significant gains in 2024, the war will be decided by something off-the-battlefield. In that case, the importance of the Black Sea region will increase, as Russia is targeting Ukrainian cargo ships there. In response, Ukraine, too, is attacking the Russian Navy. Russia has adopted a simple strategy: to continue the war until Ukraine loses support from the West. Although there is a possibility that Russia could suffer because of political instability, it will be interesting to see how long the West can provide support to Ukraine.
In the second decade of the 20th Century, former French Prime Minister Georges Benjamin Clemenceau (September 28, 1841 - November 24, 1929) had reportedly said: "It is far easier to make war than peace." His words shockingly stand true.
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