Something that the National Football League has done right: they have shortened the exhibition schedule to just three games. The games are really just fancied up workouts. With that over, we now pause for a few days until the games start to count.
The Bills were less than inspiring during their pre-season games. Reporters had to dig deep to find something good to say about the team. The offense, defense, and special teams all sputtered at various times. So where do we go from here?
National media reports mostly list the Bills among the top three or four teams this season. CBS announcer Jim Nantz says they will be in the Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles. Perhaps it is fortunate, however, that this year they are not universally picked to get there and win.
I thought that would happen last season. My optimism level is a bit lower this year.
Over the summer I re-watched the playoff game against the Cincinnati Bengals from last January. That was hard but I wanted to see if the 27-10 loss was as bad as it seemed on that day. It was.
Story lines from that game talked about how the team had run out of gas after a tough season, punctuated by the Damar Hamlin horrendous medical event and other things such as storms that laid the community low. Well, welcome to the world. Many folks in their personal lives deal with tragedies and other bumps in the road, pick themselves up and carry on – without the soothing feeling that comes with million-dollar paychecks.
We are told by Coach Sean McDermott, Josh Allen, and others that Allen has a greater "focus" on the game this year. So he wasn't focused last year?
Allen is certainly among the top three or four quarterbacks in the league but he cannot carry the team by himself. Except for the loss of Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears, the starting lineups are not much different than the 2022 team. Hopefully Von Miller comes back in prime form before too long into the season.
McDermott is now the defensive coordinator and head coach. The exhibition games did not inspire confidence in his ability to do both jobs at the same time.
And then there is the 17-game schedule, which may be the toughest that the Bills have faced in the McDermott era. Road games against both of last season's Super Bowl teams, Kansas City and Philadelphia, plus Cincinnati will be very difficult. Just winning the AFC East Division will be more of a challenge than it has been in recent years.
There shouldn't be much to worry about with the New England Patriots (how refreshing).
The Miami Dolphins won one of the three games with the Bills last year, but the two they lost were close with the playoff game going down to the wire. Their quarterback situation will remain iffy with Tua Tagovailoa but they almost won the playoff game with a backup QB.
The Bills split the two games with the New York Jets last year. The Jets think they are playoff bound with old-man Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Maybe. But consider for a moment how the last former aging Green Bay Packer QB alum, Bret Favre, performed with the Jets when he was brought in to save the team. They went 9 and 7 in his one season there and did not make the playoffs. Favre's QB rating in 2008 was 81 with 22 TDs and 22 interceptions. Rodgers is acting like he's superman, but age and injuries in seasons past will diminish his effectiveness.
So where are the Bills headed in 2023?
- Assume they lose two of the three premier games with Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia.
- Assume they win four of the six games with the AFC East, which will be difficult.
- They would then need to win six of the other eight games to get to eleven wins for the season. Those other eight games include the Giants, Cowboys, Chargers, and Jaguars. They have one of the toughest schedules in the league this year.
- Eleven and six should be enough to win the East Division; a lower record would probably get them into the playoffs as a Wild Card.
- Once in the playoffs, who knows? Do they get inspired or do they run out of gas once again?
- A trip to the Super Bowl is not out of the question but it is hardly a slam dunk.
In my post about the 2022 season last September I wrote that "the Bills in 2022 will go 13 and 4 in the regular season. They will win the AFC East, get a first-round bye, and take on the best the NFC has to offer on February 12th in Glendale, Arizona. This will be the magic season." They went 13 and 3 and won the AFC East, but so much for the remainder of the prognostications.
There is talk about the Bills' window of opportunity for a Super Bowl narrowing. Allen has lots of years left in his career but he is surrounded by many veteran players with short-term contracts. The team at this time does not have any flexibility with its salary cap.
Regardless, as a Bills fan I'll be rooting and hoping for the best in 2023. Go Bills!
Bet you might not remember this
A quote from a lawsuit filed by the NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, and NCAA in August 2012 as they challenged legalized sports betting in New Jersey, the first state to approve it: "Gambling on amateur and professional sports threatens the integrity of those sports and is fundamentally at odds with the principle… that the outcome of collegiate and professional athletic contests must be determined, and must be perceived by the public as being determined, solely on the basis of honest athletic competition."
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